I was reading an article about the upcoming promised IE 9: http://www.webmonkey.com/2010/03/microsoft-to-double-down-on-html5-with-internet-explorer-9/
As it is clear, Microsoft is running behind the facts and not setting the standards anymore (regarding browser technology). If Microsoft will not keep up with the technology, IE will die, because people will drop it in favor of faster and better browsers.
Currently I think more and more people are using a non IE browser at their personal hardware, due to different reasons. The one and only place where IE still rules is the corporate/business hardware. Personally this is one the reasons why IE has still a big market share. As mentioned in my previous posts, business software eventually follows what people use at home (matter of being used to....). Loosing market share on personal/home computers will hurt IE very hard...eventually, as it will take some time, but it will happen.
Maybe it will happen even faster, as more and more web developers in corporate operations, are actually using Chrome and Firefox during development. Users/testers will be aware of this and they would like to have the same speed and functionality as the developers. As more business solutions are converted/created as web applications this can have a big impact and would be able to speed up the process of killing IE in the business environment.
To conclude, if Microsoft does not take real action and just tries to keep up with the developments, their browser will die. (It even feels like this time Microsoft is the WordPerfect/Lotus123 they have killed years ago)
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